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Market-driven tools for asset allocation and strategic investment
HCWE supports the institutional investment community in formulating investment strategies through intelligent use of market data and superior understanding of how markets have behaved over time. Markets forecast Markets! With many decades in the business of capital-market analysis and reporting, HCWE remains one of the most dependable resources for innovative research designed specifically for the institutional investor. We distribute our research findings in a variety of periodic reports with telephone and video conferences and occasional on-site briefings. Find out how HCWE Insight can work for you. Contact us at: +1(978)468-4575 or send us a message. |
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Interest-Rate Outlook |
What drives the Treasury-bond market up or down? - 02/29/2024 |
Financial capital is constantly flowing back and forth between the markets for Treasury bonds and equities. In each market one of the motivating forces is uncertainty or anxiety about future returns. Implied volatility (VIX and MOVE) quantifies these uncertainties and, when they are high, helps predict performance. |
Equity-Market Outlook |
The stock market's secret sauce: super-cheap energy - 02/27/2024 |
In a world full of old and new geopolitical threats the price of energy fluctuates widely, with effects on inflation and stock-market prices that are not adequately recognized. |
Economy Watch |
Don't expect geopolitical risk to elevate energy prices -- it depresses them! - 01/31/2024 |
The aftermath of a war scare or geopolitical event is a lowering of oil prices and energy generally. This is obscured to some extent by a temporary boost to the price of gold. |
International Forecaster |
Emerging-market equity choices: 2023 results and 2024 prospects - 01/31/2024 |
The top performer among stock markets in 2023 was Argentina, with a 66 percent return. This was not an anomaly, but fits with a consistent relationship between equity performance and the stabilization of a rapidly falling currency. |
Fixed-Income Barometer |
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 02/19/2024 |
Sector Watch |
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 02/19/2024 |
Synopsis |
Briefing Points on the Economic and Market Outlook at the beginning of January 2024 - 01/31/2024 |
The US economy grew at a 3.4 percent rate in the fourth quarter, folloig 4.9 percent in the third. Whether or not the improvement can be sustained is uncertain. The junk bond market continues to signal unusually low default rates. But while output in the US and the Western world has been fluctuating over the past two years it has not grown consistently. Either way, other developed countries are not keeping up. |
HCWE Webcast |
Challenging Conventional Wisdom: Evidence and Doctrine around Recessions - 02/19/2024 |
Recession continues to be most unlikely in the foreseeable future. But there are even worse threats. The recent pickup in US growth doesn't change the outlook for long-lasting stagnation. And a geopolitical normalization following current international conflicts would push energy prices further up and bring inflation back. The Fed is powerless to control these forces. |
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