"Official estimates of the personal saving rate are low but rising. But that's because personal income does not include a large chunk of national income that accrues to the business and nonprofit sectors. Saving by the economy as a whole is much higher, but declining."
Economy Watch – 1/10 |
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~ R. David Ranson, President
and Director of Research
H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics
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Play a brief audio introduction
from R. David Ranson, President and Director of Research.
Approximate runtime 3 minutes after download - broadband recommended.
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Publication Highlights as of February 1, 2010
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Get the stories behind the headlines here! |
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 The Capitalist Perspective |
| Does China's economic rise pose a threat to the US? |
| The relationship between the governments of the US and China is often discordant. It gives the impression of two powers competing for world economic leadership. Actually each economy is far better off as a result of its interaction with the other. Read The Capitalist Perspective now without charge. [ Read ] |
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Interest-Rate Outlook |
| Do TIPS lack the safe-haven stature of Treasuries? |
| If Treasury bonds are safe, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) should be safer. But the market does not price them as if they were. |
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Tactical Asset Selector |
| An 'elliptical' perspective for ranking the attractiveness of investible assets |
| Market signals of the economy's performance point investors toward some asset classes and away from others. Changes in the gold price and in corporate bond spreads are especially predictive. Currently these imply an exceptionally strong tailwind in favor of commodities and equities. |
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Strategic Asset Selector |
| The outlook for stocks after ten years of going nowhere |
| While the immediate outlook for the stock market is good, economic factors will dominate its performance in the decade that has just begun. We expect the market to perform poorly in the next ten years for the same reasons that it did so badly in the last ten. |
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Economy Watch |
| Personal saving is up, but national saving is downPersonal saving is up, but national saving is down |
| Official estimates of the personal saving rate are low but rising. But that's because personal income does not include a large chunk of national income that accrues to the business and nonprofit sectors. Saving by the economy as a whole is much higher, but declining. |
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Fixed-Income Barometer |
| Highlights: |
| We expect bond yields to rise in 2010, but credit spreads should continue to narrow as risk appetite improves, while the creditworthiness of the Treasury deteriorates. |
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Economic Barometer |
| Highlights: |
| The tremendous contraction in the Baa/Aaa corporate yield spread implies that 2010 will be one of the fastest-growth years in living memory, as the economy climbs back to its pre-crisis output capacity. Employment will not keep pace, because the cost of Washington's massive spending initiatives must mainly fall on the backs of labor. |
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Equity-Market Barometer |
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| The stock market has much further to go. But it will increasingly be held back by inflation. |
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International Barometer |
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Foreign-exchange Value of the Dollar: Declining over the next couple of years.
Equity Markets:
Most favored - Singapore
Least favored - Hong Kong
Bond Markets:
Most favored - U.K.
Least favored - U.S.
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Get the stories behind the headlines here! |
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