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Market-driven tools for asset allocation and strategic investment


The Markets Message

HCWE supports the institutional investment community in formulating investment strategies through intelligent use of market data and superior understanding of how markets have behaved over time. Markets forecast Markets!

With many decades in the business of capital-market analysis and reporting, HCWE remains one of the most dependable resources for innovative research designed specifically for the institutional investor.

We distribute our research findings in a variety of periodic reports with telephone and video conferences and occasional on-site briefings.

Find out how HCWE Insight can work for you. Contact us at: +1(978)468-4575 or send us a message.

R. David Ranson,
President and
Director of Research,
HCWE & Co.


Highlights from Recent Publications

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Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Interest-Rate Outlook
Bond-market consequences of the Fed's rate cut - 09/30/2024
The Fed influences, but does not control, the bond market. As happened recently, a sufficiently large depreciation of the currency (relative to gold) can more than offset a Fed rate cut.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Tactical Asset Selector
Sustained risk and capital-market performance - 09/30/2024
Geopolitical risk is a major factor in capital markets, but it comes in more than one flavor. Evidence from a news-based index suggest that implied volatility subsides more quickly than the asset-price damage that it causes.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economy Watch
How oil prices are linked to gold - 10/29/2024
Oil and gold may seem to be independently priced, but a long historical perspective shows that they move in parallel, both reflecting the dollar's long-term depreciation. The ratio between their prices is (slowly) mean-reverting.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  The Political Economy in Perspective
Prediction markets and polls, past and present - 10/31/2024
Presidential betting odds and polls provide noisy estimates of the election outcome. They change over time, vary from source to source, and both occasionally incur large errors. In the past, polling of the popular vote has been the better predictor of the way the Electoral College will tilt. However, as volume and efficiency continue to grow rapidly, prediction markets will be increasingly constrained by arbitrage.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 10/30/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Equity-Market Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 09/25/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  International Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 09/23/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Emerging-Market Selector
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 10/16/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Graphic Insights
Gold and oil prices predict or explain inflation all by themselves - 09/30/2024
Economists talk as if the inflation rate were determined by supply and demand in the markets for consumption goods and services, together with the restraining effect of interest-rate hikes. In practice, price movements in commodities that have nothing to do with consumer markets explain and anticipate inflation very well by themselves.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Synopsis
Highlights: - 10/31/2024
With increased uncertainty about global conflict outcomes the price of gold has been further elevated, while that of oil has been further depressed. Ironically, the result is to hold industrial commodity prices and inflation down over the coming months, and stock prices up. The global economy may not return to equilibrium anytime soon, but the reversal will be dramatic when it comes.

Get the stories behind the headlines! Contact HCWE & Co. at +1(978)468-4575
or send us a message.

HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet New! Think Inflation Is Cooling? Think Again. Randall W. Forsyth, Barrons.com, May 18, 2024 Read
bullet Dr. David Ranson's 2024 Financial Forecast, The Financial Quarterback, YouTube 2/10/2024 Play
bullet Taming the Inflation Beast, S. Constable, Briefings, Jan-Feb, 2024 Read
bullet What's Really Driving Inflation? It Ain't The Federal Reserve, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 8/28/23 Read
bullet What G.D.P.'s Cousin Can Tell Us About the Economy, P. Coy, New York Times, 8/8/23 Read
bullet How The Government Is Making The Silicon Valley Bank Crisis Worse, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 4/23/23 Read
bullet Why It's So Hard to Stop Inflation, Virtual Presentation, CFA Switzarland, 2/9/2023 Watch
bullet Norm Reversion for Oil Indicates Less-Than-Transitory Inflation, Opinion, Real Clear Markets, 3/6/2023 Read
bullet The Fed's Dim Chances - Podcast, The Independent Research Forum, 1/30/2023 [Play]
bullet Will Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Pull Down Inflation?, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/27/2022 Read
bullet Recession Still Nowhere To Be Seen, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/19/2022 Read
bullet Inflation Is About the Quality of Money, Not Quantity, David Ranson, Barron's - Economy & Policy, 11/25/22 Read

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