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Market-driven tools for asset allocation and strategic investment
 HCWE supports the institutional investment community in formulating investment strategies through intelligent use of market data and superior understanding of how markets have behaved over time. Markets forecast Markets! With many decades in the business of capital-market analysis and reporting, HCWE remains one of the most dependable resources for innovative research designed specifically for the institutional investor. We distribute our research findings in a variety of periodic reports with telephone and video conferences and occasional on-site briefings. Find out how HCWE Insight can work for you. Contact us at: +1(978)468-4575 or send us a message. |
 R. David Ranson, |
Authorized users can view recent publications by signing in and visiting the Archives
 Interest-Rate Outlook |
| Bond-market consequences of the Fed's rate cut - 09/30/2024 |
| The Fed influences, but does not control, the bond market. As happened recently, a sufficiently large depreciation of the currency (relative to gold) can more than offset a Fed rate cut. |
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Tactical Asset Selector |
| Sustained risk and capital-market performance - 09/30/2024 |
| Geopolitical risk is a major factor in capital markets, but it comes in more than one flavor. Evidence from a news-based index suggest that implied volatility subsides more quickly than the asset-price damage that it causes. |
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Economy Watch |
| How oil prices are linked to gold - 10/29/2024 |
| Oil and gold may seem to be independently priced, but a long historical perspective shows that they move in parallel, both reflecting the dollar's long-term depreciation. The ratio between their prices is (slowly) mean-reverting. |
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The Political Economy in Perspective |
| Prediction markets and polls, past and present - 10/31/2024 |
| Presidential betting odds and polls provide noisy estimates of the election outcome. They change over time, vary from source to source, and both occasionally incur large errors. In the past, polling of the popular vote has been the better predictor of the way the Electoral College will tilt. However, as volume and efficiency continue to grow rapidly, prediction markets will be increasingly constrained by arbitrage. |
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Economic Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 10/30/2024 |
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Equity-Market Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 09/25/2024 |
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International Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 09/23/2024 |
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Emerging-Market Selector |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 10/16/2024 |
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Sector Watch |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 11/13/2024 |
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Graphic Insights |
| Gold and oil prices predict or explain inflation all by themselves - 09/30/2024 |
| Economists talk as if the inflation rate were determined by supply and demand in the markets for consumption goods and services, together with the restraining effect of interest-rate hikes. In practice, price movements in commodities that have nothing to do with consumer markets explain and anticipate inflation very well by themselves. |
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Synopsis |
| Highlights: - 10/31/2024 |
| With increased uncertainty about global conflict outcomes the price of gold has been further elevated, while that of oil has been further depressed. Ironically, the result is to hold industrial commodity prices and inflation down over the coming months, and stock prices up. The global economy may not return to equilibrium anytime soon, but the reversal will be dramatic when it comes. |
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