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Market-driven tools for asset allocation and strategic investment
 HCWE supports the institutional investment community in formulating investment strategies through intelligent use of market data and superior understanding of how markets have behaved over time. Markets forecast Markets! With many decades in the business of capital-market analysis and reporting, HCWE remains one of the most dependable resources for innovative research designed specifically for the institutional investor. We distribute our research findings in a variety of periodic reports with telephone and video conferences and occasional on-site briefings. Find out how HCWE Insight can work for you. Contact us at: +1(978)468-4575 or send us a message. |
 R. David Ranson, |
Authorized users can view recent publications by signing in and visiting the Archives
 Interest-Rate Outlook |
| Bond-market consequences of the Fed's rate cut - 09/30/2024 |
| The Fed influences, but does not control, the bond market. As happened recently, a sufficiently large depreciation of the currency (relative to gold) can more than offset a Fed rate cut. |
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Equity-Market Outlook |
| Why energy markets are so volatile - 08/31/2024 |
| Energy-stock prices rise and fall with the price of oil, which in the longer run moves in parallel with forward gold. Shorter-term fluctuations in the oil-gold ratio are due in part to movements in the implied volatility of the oil market. Other factors cannot yet be identified. |
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Tactical Asset Selector |
| Sustained risk and capital-market performance - 09/30/2024 |
| Geopolitical risk is a major factor in capital markets, but it comes in more than one flavor. Evidence from a news-based index suggest that implied volatility subsides more quickly than the asset-price damage that it causes. |
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International Forecaster |
| The currency-performance factor in economic development - 08/31/2024 |
| Using stock markets as a rough proxy for economic development in the emerging world, there is extensive evidence that one of the major barriers is currency depreciation. The damage done lasts for years. But when a currency eventually stabilizes, stock prices bounce back. |
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Fixed-Income Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 08/19/2024 |
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Equity-Market Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 09/25/2024 |
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International Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 09/23/2024 |
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Sector Watch |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 08/19/2024 |
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Graphic Insights |
| Gold and oil prices predict or explain inflation all by themselves - 09/30/2024 |
| Economists talk as if the inflation rate were determined by supply and demand in the markets for consumption goods and services, together with the restraining effect of interest-rate hikes. In practice, price movements in commodities that have nothing to do with consumer markets explain and anticipate inflation very well by themselves. |
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HCWE Webcast |
| Explaining US Inflation Today -- What Experience Tells Us - 08/28/2024 |
| Beliefs about how the economy works usually come from what people learned in school or have heard from the press. It pays to check out the facts. Inflation is an example of a major subject about which generally accepted beliefs originate in theory-building rather than observation or experience. |
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