Markets Forecasting Markets

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Market-driven tools for asset allocation and strategic investment


The Markets Message

HCWE supports the institutional investment community in formulating investment strategies through intelligent use of market data and superior understanding of how markets have behaved over time. Markets forecast Markets!

With many decades in the business of capital-market analysis and reporting, HCWE remains one of the most dependable resources for innovative research designed specifically for the institutional investor.

We distribute our research findings in a variety of periodic reports with telephone and video conferences and occasional on-site briefings.

Find out how HCWE Insight can work for you. Contact us at: +1(978)468-4575 or send us a message.

R. David Ranson,
President and
Director of Research,
HCWE & Co.


Highlights from Recent Publications

Authorized users can view recent publications by signing in and visiting the Archives

Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Attention Investors
Jumping oil prices have sparked a new inflation surge - 01/18/2025
No economic indicator is a better forecaster of inflation in the short term than the price of crude oil. And it is independent of other indicators. Its recent jump is signaling a scary inflation picture for at least the next couple of months.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  The Capitalist Perspective
How government spending can undermine economic success - 12/22/2024
The recipient benefits when receiving unearned payments from Washington -- especially humanitarian aid. But over longer periods of time there is a hidden cost in self-reliance or resilience. This is quickly detectable in the impact of federal transfer payments on US growth. Read the most recent Capitalist Perspective now without charge. [ Read ]
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Interest-Rate Outlook
Gold, oil and high-yield bonds - 12/30/2024
Together with the price of gold, the price of oil has predictive power, one year ahead, for the performance of junk bonds as well as equity markets.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic and Investment Observations
Historical regularities that challenge popular understanding of economic policy - 11/30/2024
Much economic dialogue is based on myths that make the case for a large and active federal government. But evidence to the contrary is plentiful. Federal spending doesn't encourage growth. Higher tax rates don't bring in more revenue. Interest-rate hikes don't mitigate inflation.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  International Forecaster
- 11/22/2024
"By facilitating the allocation of the world's savings to the most productive uses, the free flow of capital across national borders confers substantial economic benefits, including the promotion of economic growth."
~ Ben S. Bernanke, Banque de France Financial Stability Review Launch Event, Paris, 2011.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Fixed-Income Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 11/22/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Equity-Market Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 12/28/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  International Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 12/18/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Emerging-Market Selector
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 01/19/2025
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  HCWE Webcast
How Risk Drives A Cycle of Inflation and Equity Returns - 11/30/2024
Financial technology has made it possible to quantify market risk as never before. Although the economy and capital markets have always been driven in part by fluctuating risk, in recent years geopolitics has inserted greater and more variable risks as the Cold War has warmed up. It's now possible to recognize how the ebb and flow of geopolitical risk creates a cycle in commodity prices, inflation, capital markets, and Fed policy.

Get the stories behind the headlines! Contact HCWE & Co. at +1(978)468-4575
or send us a message.

HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet New! Think Inflation Is Cooling? Think Again. Randall W. Forsyth, Barrons.com, May 18, 2024 Read
bullet Dr. David Ranson's 2024 Financial Forecast, The Financial Quarterback, YouTube 2/10/2024 Play
bullet Taming the Inflation Beast, S. Constable, Briefings, Jan-Feb, 2024 Read
bullet What's Really Driving Inflation? It Ain't The Federal Reserve, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 8/28/23 Read
bullet What G.D.P.'s Cousin Can Tell Us About the Economy, P. Coy, New York Times, 8/8/23 Read
bullet How The Government Is Making The Silicon Valley Bank Crisis Worse, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 4/23/23 Read
bullet Why It's So Hard to Stop Inflation, Virtual Presentation, CFA Switzarland, 2/9/2023 Watch
bullet Norm Reversion for Oil Indicates Less-Than-Transitory Inflation, Opinion, Real Clear Markets, 3/6/2023 Read
bullet The Fed's Dim Chances - Podcast, The Independent Research Forum, 1/30/2023 [Play]
bullet Will Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Pull Down Inflation?, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/27/2022 Read
bullet Recession Still Nowhere To Be Seen, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/19/2022 Read
bullet Inflation Is About the Quality of Money, Not Quantity, David Ranson, Barron's - Economy & Policy, 11/25/22 Read

[more]