Markets Forecasting Markets

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Market-driven tools for asset allocation and strategic investment

The Markets Message

HCWE supports the institutional investment community in formulating investment strategies through intelligent use of market data and superior understanding of how markets have behaved over time. Markets forecast Markets!

With many decades in the business of capital-market analysis and reporting, HCWE remains one of the most dependable resources for innovative research designed specifically for the institutional investor.

We distribute our research findings in a variety of periodic reports with telephone and video conferences and occasional on-site briefings.

Find out how HCWE Insight can work for you. Contact us at: +1(978)468-4575 or send us a message.

R. David Ranson,
President and
Director of Research,
HCWE & Co.

Highlights from Recent Publications

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Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  The Capitalist Perspective
It's reasonable to claim that economics is a science, but not that economists act like scientists. Especially in macro or capital-market theory there is much politics and little thinking outside the box. Scientific method requires that doctrines and beliefs be compatible with empirical evidence. This is often not the case, as many simple examples illustrate. - 05/31/2024
Read the most recent Capitalist Perspective now without charge. [ Read ]
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Interest-Rate Outlook
Commodity prices that explain or anticipate bond market performance - 06/24/2024
As with the stock market and the inflation rate, the bond market's movements are heavily influenced by two pivotal commodity prices: gold and oil.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Strategic Asset Selector
Metal-market price insights from a very long perspective - 05/31/2024
Over long periods of time, the prices of silver and of industrial metals move in parallel with the price of gold. But over the short term their behavior diverges in a way that correlates with both T-bond yields and capital-market risk.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic and Investment Observations
Inflation takes its time to spread through the price system - 06/24/2024
Inflation is best understood as a condition that enters and transmits itself through the price system over a substantial period of time. Most of the indexes in widespread use are lagging indicators.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Equity-Market Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 06/19/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  International Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 06/19/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Graphic Insights
The hedging power of implied volatility - 06/30/2024
Capital-market pricing is not solely a matter of supply and/or demand. Public uncertainty or confidence is a ubiquitous factor.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  HCWE Webcast
Different Drivers of Short-run and Long-run Equity Performance - 05/31/2024
The stock market responds to different economic stimuli over long and short time frames. Stock price performance correlates with and anticipates real GDP growth over a horizon of one to two years. Inflation, reflected in movements in oil and gold prices, moves ahead of the stock market.

Over ten-year periods inflation and the price of gold are dominant, while any connection with growth is tenuous.

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HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet New! Think Inflation Is Cooling? Think Again. Randall W. Forsyth,, May 18, 2024 Read
bullet Dr. David Ranson's 2024 Financial Forecast, The Financial Quarterback, YouTube 2/10/2024 Play
bullet Taming the Inflation Beast, S. Constable, Briefings, Jan-Feb, 2024 Read
bullet What's Really Driving Inflation? It Ain't The Federal Reserve, S. Constable,, 8/28/23 Read
bullet What G.D.P.'s Cousin Can Tell Us About the Economy, P. Coy, New York Times, 8/8/23 Read
bullet How The Government Is Making The Silicon Valley Bank Crisis Worse, S. Constable,, 4/23/23 Read
bullet Why It's So Hard to Stop Inflation, Virtual Presentation, CFA Switzarland, 2/9/2023 Watch
bullet Norm Reversion for Oil Indicates Less-Than-Transitory Inflation, Opinion, Real Clear Markets, 3/6/2023 Read
bullet The Fed's Dim Chances - Podcast, The Independent Research Forum, 1/30/2023 [Play]
bullet Will Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Pull Down Inflation?, S. Constable,, 12/27/2022 Read
bullet Recession Still Nowhere To Be Seen, S. Constable,, 12/19/2022 Read
bullet Inflation Is About the Quality of Money, Not Quantity, David Ranson, Barron's - Economy & Policy, 11/25/22 Read