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Market-driven tools for asset allocation and strategic investment


The Markets Message

HCWE supports the institutional investment community in formulating investment strategies through intelligent use of market data and superior understanding of how markets have behaved over time. Markets forecast Markets!

With many decades in the business of capital-market analysis and reporting, HCWE remains one of the most dependable resources for innovative research designed specifically for the institutional investor.

We distribute our research findings in a variety of periodic reports with telephone and video conferences and occasional on-site briefings.

Find out how HCWE Insight can work for you. Contact us at: +1(978)468-4575 or send us a message.

R. David Ranson,
President and
Director of Research,
HCWE & Co.


Highlights from Recent Publications

Authorized users can view recent publications by signing in and visiting the Archives

Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Attention Investors
Jumping oil prices have sparked a new inflation surge - 01/18/2025
No economic indicator is a better forecaster of inflation in the short term than the price of crude oil. And it is independent of other indicators. Its recent jump is signaling a scary inflation picture for at least the next couple of months.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  The Capitalist Perspective
How government spending can undermine economic success - 12/22/2024
The recipient benefits when receiving unearned payments from Washington -- especially humanitarian aid. But over longer periods of time there is a hidden cost in self-reliance or resilience. This is quickly detectable in the impact of federal transfer payments on US growth. Read the most recent Capitalist Perspective now without charge. [ Read ]
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Interest-Rate Outlook
Gold, oil and high-yield bonds - 12/30/2024
Together with the price of gold, the price of oil has predictive power, one year ahead, for the performance of junk bonds as well as equity markets.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economy Watch
To anticipate inflation, watch the price of oil - 01/29/2025
Since December there has been a large uplift in the price of oil, although it has fallen back since mid-January. Whether or not it lasts, the impact on reported inflation in the near future will cause policymakers much grief.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 01/31/2025
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Equity-Market Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 12/28/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  International Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 12/18/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Emerging-Market Selector
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 01/19/2025
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Synopsis
Highlights: - 01/31/2025
Washington's change of administration inserts many uncertainties into the economic and capital-markets picture as 2025 begins. But the baseline outlook is determined in large part by the policies of the past couple of years, boosted by rapid technological advances and by capital inflows from more distressed parts of the world.

The inflation picture has been held down by a depression in global oil prices due partly to sustained geopolitical risk in Europe and the Middle East, as risk motivates capital to move into safe-haven assets at the expense of risky assets. But as 2025 opened, the price of oil rose dramatically, sparking an imminent surge in inflation.

Get the stories behind the headlines! Contact HCWE & Co. at +1(978)468-4575
or send us a message.

HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet New! Think Inflation Is Cooling? Think Again. Randall W. Forsyth, Barrons.com, May 18, 2024 Read
bullet Dr. David Ranson's 2024 Financial Forecast, The Financial Quarterback, YouTube 2/10/2024 Play
bullet Taming the Inflation Beast, S. Constable, Briefings, Jan-Feb, 2024 Read
bullet What's Really Driving Inflation? It Ain't The Federal Reserve, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 8/28/23 Read
bullet What G.D.P.'s Cousin Can Tell Us About the Economy, P. Coy, New York Times, 8/8/23 Read
bullet How The Government Is Making The Silicon Valley Bank Crisis Worse, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 4/23/23 Read
bullet Why It's So Hard to Stop Inflation, Virtual Presentation, CFA Switzarland, 2/9/2023 Watch
bullet Norm Reversion for Oil Indicates Less-Than-Transitory Inflation, Opinion, Real Clear Markets, 3/6/2023 Read
bullet The Fed's Dim Chances - Podcast, The Independent Research Forum, 1/30/2023 [Play]
bullet Will Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Pull Down Inflation?, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/27/2022 Read
bullet Recession Still Nowhere To Be Seen, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/19/2022 Read
bullet Inflation Is About the Quality of Money, Not Quantity, David Ranson, Barron's - Economy & Policy, 11/25/22 Read

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